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Red223
412265.5
314260.5
248664.1
Blue175
902936.5
565352.5
194268.4
85%Model gave it15%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions198156100250223175

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
0Auto0
+10Teleop
+40Endgame
+48Fouls
Autonomouslevel
0Leave6
7Coral scored#6
37Coral points31
37Total auto37
TeleoperatedRed +10
29Coral scored#29
106Coral points104
2Processor algae#2
6Net algae#4
12Processor points12
24Net points16
36Algae points28
142Total teleop132
Reef
13L4#16
8L3#11
9L2#5
6L1 · trough#3
44Game pieces#41
BargeRed +30
36Cage & park6
36Total endgame6
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +48
8Foul points0
223Total score175

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
4122
#37
65.51.9
55.157.1
Auto9.4
Teleop46.5
End9.6
blue by 2.9
1942
#11
68.41.1
68.869.9
Auto18.2
Teleop43.8
End6.4
Second
2486
#22
64.11.9
58.260.1
Auto13.6
Teleop39.2
End11.3
red by 11.6
5653
#71
52.51.1
50.551.7
Auto9.6
Teleop40.3
End2.6
Third
3142
#36
60.51.9
61.763.6
Auto13.9
Teleop35.7
End10.8
red by 23.9
9029
#42
36.51.1
27.828.9
Auto8.3
Teleop26.7
End1.5
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
95%Auto oddsEarned95%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
42%Coral oddsMissed19%Coral oddsEarned
Barge
98%Barge oddsEarned58%Barge oddsMissed