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Red265
566549.7
25493.0
740785.1
Blue231
108649.6
594097.3
168374.2
73%Model gave it27%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions245216150200300350265231

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+1
+8Teleop
+28Endgame
+34Fouls
AutonomousBlue +1
3Leave3
11Coral scored#11
54Coral points55
57Total auto58
TeleoperatedRed +9
37Coral scored#39
134Coral points139
3Processor algae#2
6Net algae#4
18Processor points12
24Net points16
42Algae points28
176Total teleop167
Reef
20L4#14
11L3#10
11L2#15
6L1 · trough#11
57Game pieces#56
BargeRed +20
26Cage & park6
26Total endgame6
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +34
6Foul points0
265Total score231

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
254
#4
93.01.2
96.497.5
Auto23.8
Teleop60.0
End9.3
blue by 4.2
97.30.8
102.5103.3
Auto22.8
Teleop64.0
End10.5
Second
85.11.2
83.985.1
Auto24.4
Teleop48.4
End12.3
red by 10.9
1683
#18
74.20.8
66.367.1
Auto12.2
Teleop54.6
End7.4
Third
5665
#34
49.71.2
49.951.1
Auto7.4
Teleop40.4
End2.0
red by 0.1
1086
#49
49.60.8
39.440.2
Auto14.2
Teleop30.4
End5.0
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
99%Auto oddsEarned96%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
97%Coral oddsEarned88%Coral oddsEarned
Barge
98%Barge oddsEarned98%Barge oddsMissed