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Red221
131868.6
412265.5
341468.6
Blue230
95770.8
301565.9
147762.6
30%Model gave it70%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions202221140160180240260280300221230

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+18
+13Teleop
+3Endgame
Fouls+9
AutonomousBlue +18
9Leave3
5Coral scored#10
24Coral points48
33Total auto51
TeleoperatedRed +31
29Coral scored#24
106Coral points85
6Processor algae#3
5Net algae#7
36Processor points18
20Net points28
56Algae points46
162Total teleop131
Reef
10L4#7
11L3#12
9L2#9
4L1 · trough#6
45Game pieces#44
BargeBlue +10
26Cage & park36
26Total endgame36
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +9
0Foul points12
221Total score230

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
1318
#38
68.61.9
68.970.8
Auto14.6
Teleop47.9
End6.0
blue by 2.2
957
#16
70.80.5
71.071.5
Auto18.9
Teleop40.8
End11.1
Second
3414
#40
68.61.9
58.660.5
Auto15.0
Teleop44.8
End8.8
red by 2.7
3015
#14
65.90.5
63.964.4
Auto16.3
Teleop40.5
End9.1
Third
4122
#37
65.51.9
59.261.1
Auto9.4
Teleop46.5
End9.6
red by 2.9
1477
#31
62.60.5
70.871.3
Auto11.8
Teleop42.1
End8.7
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
97%Auto oddsEarned98%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
45%Coral oddsMissed59%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
94%Barge oddsEarned99%Barge oddsEarned