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Red206
412265.5
415277.0
902936.5
Blue191
779057.6
146865.3
651055.9
42%Model gave it58%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions182185150160170190200210220206191

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+24Auto
+25Teleop
+15Endgame
+15Fouls
AutonomousRed +24
3Leave9
10Coral scored#4
48Coral points18
51Total auto27
TeleoperatedRed +1
31Coral scored#29
111Coral points106
3Processor algae#3
5Net algae#6
18Processor points18
20Net points24
38Algae points42
149Total teleop148
Reef
10L4#13
13L3#9
12L2#5
6L1 · trough#6
49Game pieces#42
BargeBlue +10
6Cage & park16
6Total endgame16
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +15
0Foul points0
206Total score191

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
4152
#52
77.02.7
69.271.9
Auto23.1
Teleop43.8
End10.1
red by 11.7
1468
#62
65.30.9
63.664.5
Auto12.3
Teleop46.2
End6.7
Second
4122
#37
65.52.7
61.163.7
Auto9.4
Teleop46.5
End9.6
red by 7.8
7790
#41
57.60.9
55.656.5
Auto12.5
Teleop40.5
End4.7
Third
9029
#42
36.52.7
32.735.3
Auto8.3
Teleop26.7
End1.5
blue by 19.4
6510
#54
55.90.9
56.457.2
Auto11.1
Teleop38.3
End6.5
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
97%Auto oddsEarned83%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
18%Coral oddsMissed29%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
89%Barge oddsMissed82%Barge oddsEarned