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Red77
150230.2
750130.5
600512.1
Blue82
608725.9
511026.5
779418.9
80%Model gave it20%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions785720401001207782

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+3
Teleop+15
Endgame+5
Fouls+5
AutonomousBlue +3
9Leave6
0Coral scored#1
0Coral points6
9Total auto12
TeleoperatedBlue +12
9Coral scored#14
34Coral points50
1Processor algae#1
3Net algae#2
6Processor points6
12Net points8
18Algae points14
52Total teleop64
Reef
4L4#4
2L3#4
2L2#4
1L1 · trough#3
13Game pieces#18
BargeRed +10
16Cage & park6
16Total endgame6
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +5
0Foul points0
77Total score82

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
30.50.2
26.526.3
Auto2.0
Teleop22.1
End6.4
red by 4.0
5110
#19
26.52.0
19.021.0
Auto4.2
Teleop20.1
End2.2
Second
1502
#10
30.20.2
26.326.1
Auto7.3
Teleop20.3
End2.7
red by 4.3
6087
#21
25.92.0
22.524.5
Auto2.5
Teleop20.4
End3.0
Third
6005
#12
12.10.2
14.314.0
Auto3.5
Teleop7.4
End1.3
blue by 6.8
7794
#14
18.92.0
12.014.0
Auto4.1
Teleop10.6
End4.2
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
41%Auto oddsMissed27%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
4%Coral oddsMissed4%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
30%Barge oddsEarned31%Barge oddsMissed