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Red46
96508.7
78556.6
171833.7
Blue30
71556.0
437720.2
779029.5
49%Model gave it51%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions67673040506080901004630

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, centred to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+3
+10Teleop
+10Endgame
+16Fouls
AutonomousBlue +3
0Leave9
1Coral scored#0
6Coral points0
6Total auto9
TeleoperatedRed +13
6Coral scored#4
20Coral points13
1Processor algae#0
1Net algae#1
6Processor points0
4Net points4
10Algae points4
30Total teleop17
Reef
2L4#2
3L3#1
1L2#1
1L1 · trough#0
9Game pieces#5
Bargelevel
4Cage & park4
4Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +16
6Foul points0
46Total score30

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
33.71.1
33.732.6
Auto5.4
Teleop21.7
End6.6
red by 4.2
7790
#15
29.51.9
29.827.9
Auto5.9
Teleop18.0
End5.6
Second
9650
#31
8.71.1
11.09.9
Auto1.6
Teleop5.7
End1.4
blue by 11.5
4377
#36
20.21.9
17.415.5
Auto2.7
Teleop15.1
End2.5
Third
7855
#34
6.61.1
8.97.8
Auto1.5
Teleop5.7
End-0.6
red by 0.5
7155
#35
6.01.9
6.34.4
Auto2.0
Teleop3.2
End0.9
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
34%Auto oddsMissed14%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
3%Coral oddsMissed3%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
40%Barge oddsMissed32%Barge oddsMissed