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Red115
779029.5
171833.7
560327.1
Blue129
354633.6
550543.2
437720.2
47%Model gave it53%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions991016080120140160115129

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+7
Teleop+18
Endgame+20
Fouls+14
AutonomousBlue +7
0Leave0
4Coral scored#5
19Coral points26
19Total auto26
TeleoperatedBlue +11
17Coral scored#18
60Coral points65
0Processor algae#1
4Net algae#4
0Processor points6
16Net points16
16Algae points22
76Total teleop87
Reef
10L4#8
6L3#6
3L2#5
2L1 · trough#4
25Game pieces#28
BargeBlue +2
14Cage & park16
14Total endgame16
Penalties & totalBlue +14
6Foul points0
115Total score129

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
33.70.4
33.333.7
Auto5.4
Teleop21.7
End6.6
blue by 9.4
43.20.9
40.741.6
Auto8.5
Teleop27.3
End7.4
Second
7790
#15
29.50.4
29.129.5
Auto5.9
Teleop18.0
End5.6
blue by 4.1
3546
#17
33.60.9
31.232.1
Auto7.8
Teleop24.4
End1.4
Third
5603
#32
27.10.4
26.627.1
Auto4.6
Teleop19.9
End2.5
red by 6.9
4377
#36
20.20.9
17.818.6
Auto2.7
Teleop15.1
End2.5