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Red153
717440.5
922625.1
686138.2
Blue135
722040.9
28014.3
842436.4
74%Model gave it26%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions1169050100150200153135

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+14Auto
+10Teleop
+12Endgame
+18Fouls
AutonomousRed +14
9Leave0
4Coral scored#3
21Coral points16
30Total auto16
TeleoperatedBlue +4
20Coral scored#23
73Coral points83
2Processor algae#1
4Net algae#4
12Processor points6
16Net points16
28Algae points22
101Total teleop105
Reef
8L4#7
6L3#8
6L2#6
4L1 · trough#5
30Game pieces#31
BargeRed +2
16Cage & park14
16Total endgame14
Penalties & totalRed +18
6Foul points0
153Total score135

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
40.50.9
39.140.0
Auto15.0
Teleop22.9
End2.7
blue by 0.4
7220
#15
40.91.0
37.338.4
Auto5.1
Teleop31.6
End4.3
Second
38.20.9
36.837.7
Auto5.0
Teleop25.5
End7.7
red by 1.8
8424
#11
36.41.0
32.833.8
Auto8.4
Teleop23.1
End4.9
Third
9226
#19
25.10.9
23.724.5
Auto4.3
Teleop17.3
End3.5
red by 10.8
280
#35
14.31.0
10.711.7
Auto2.4
Teleop10.8
End1.1