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Red117
924922.7
1060523.1
439177.8
Blue101
771310.7
607740.8
598034.4
98%Model gave it2%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions1497750100200117101

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+14Auto
+24Teleop
+16Endgame
+16Fouls
AutonomousRed +14
6Leave6
5Coral scored#2
24Coral points10
30Total auto16
TeleoperatedRed +10
14Coral scored#13
49Coral points45
2Processor algae#1
2Net algae#2
12Processor points6
8Net points8
20Algae points14
69Total teleop59
Reef
6L4#3
5L3#5
5L2#4
3L1 · trough#3
23Game pieces#18
BargeBlue +8
16Cage & park24
16Total endgame24
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +16
2Foul points2
117Total score101

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
77.80.5
72.872.3
Auto17.6
Teleop50.0
End10.2
red by 37.0
6077
#17
40.81.8
35.136.9
Auto5.1
Teleop27.3
End8.3
Second
23.10.5
24.223.7
Auto4.2
Teleop16.9
End2.0
blue by 11.4
5980
#11
34.41.8
29.030.8
Auto5.0
Teleop22.1
End7.2
Third
9249
#15
22.70.5
25.224.7
Auto4.5
Teleop17.0
End1.2
red by 12.0
7713
#39
10.71.8
8.310.0
Auto2.7
Teleop5.6
End2.4
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
95%Auto oddsEarned28%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
27%Coral oddsEarned3%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
59%Barge oddsEarned75%Barge oddsEarned