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Red120
548620.8
1050536.1
612143.9
Blue71
611222.1
607916.4
656929.8
73%Model gave it27%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions101775015020012071

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+8Auto
+63Teleop
+49Endgame
+49Fouls
AutonomousRed +8
0Leave6
3Coral scored#1
17Coral points3
17Total auto9
TeleoperatedRed +55
20Coral scored#9
71Coral points34
2Processor algae#1
5Net algae#2
12Processor points6
20Net points8
32Algae points14
103Total teleop48
Reef
5L4#3
9L3#3
4L2#2
5L1 · trough#2
30Game pieces#13
BargeBlue +14
0Cage & park14
0Total endgame14
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +49
0Foul points0
120Total score71

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
6121
#18
43.92.2
37.239.5
Auto5.8
Teleop36.0
End2.2
red by 14.1
6569
#23
29.80.1
29.829.7
Auto3.8
Teleop23.7
End2.3
Second
36.12.2
29.631.8
Auto5.6
Teleop30.5
End0.1
red by 14.1
6112
#28
22.10.1
18.518.4
Auto3.3
Teleop11.9
End6.9
Third
5486
#33
20.82.2
16.819.1
Auto3.5
Teleop15.8
End1.5
red by 4.4
6079
#38
16.40.1
17.917.9
Auto2.7
Teleop10.4
End3.3
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
51%Auto oddsMissed46%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
4%Coral oddsMissed4%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
27%Barge oddsMissed39%Barge oddsEarned