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Red143
607740.8
258644.7
977327.0
Blue98
439238.4
922729.8
550121.0
76%Model gave it24%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions122965015020014398

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+10Auto
+31Teleop
+45Endgame
+45Fouls
AutonomousRed +10
0Leave3
5Coral scored#3
26Coral points13
26Total auto16
TeleoperatedRed +21
20Coral scored#11
71Coral points40
3Processor algae#2
3Net algae#7
18Processor points12
12Net points28
30Algae points40
101Total teleop80
Reef
11L4#4
5L3#5
4L2#3
5L1 · trough#2
31Game pieces#23
BargeRed +14
16Cage & park2
16Total endgame2
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +45
0Foul points0
143Total score98

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
2586
#10
44.72.0
43.045.0
Auto13.0
Teleop28.8
End2.8
red by 6.2
4392
#13
38.40.1
36.937.0
Auto5.8
Teleop31.0
End1.6
Second
6077
#17
40.82.0
36.238.2
Auto5.1
Teleop27.3
End8.3
red by 10.9
9227
#20
29.80.1
28.628.7
Auto6.3
Teleop22.4
End1.2
Third
9773
#16
27.02.0
23.625.6
Auto5.4
Teleop18.9
End2.7
red by 6.1
5501
#27
21.00.1
19.219.3
Auto4.2
Teleop14.6
End2.2
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
91%Auto oddsEarned69%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
4%Coral oddsMissed5%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
74%Barge oddsEarned12%Barge oddsMissed