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Red174
607740.8
439238.4
159627.2
Blue127
725028.6
972228.9
975523.7
84%Model gave it16%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions14310950100200174127

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+7Auto
+37Teleop
+47Endgame
+47Fouls
AutonomousRed +7
6Leave3
3Coral scored#2
13Coral points9
19Total auto12
TeleoperatedRed +30
24Coral scored#21
85Coral points77
4Processor algae#1
8Net algae#7
24Processor points6
32Net points28
56Algae points34
141Total teleop111
Reef
10L4#7
7L3#5
6L2#6
4L1 · trough#5
39Game pieces#31
BargeRed +10
14Cage & park4
14Total endgame4
Penalties & totalRed +47
0Foul points0
174Total score127

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
6077
#17
40.80.7
40.441.0
Auto5.1
Teleop27.3
End8.3
red by 11.8
9722
#12
28.90.2
28.728.9
Auto5.8
Teleop21.4
End1.7
Second
4392
#13
38.40.7
38.038.7
Auto5.8
Teleop31.0
End1.6
red by 9.8
7250
#31
28.60.2
28.428.6
Auto4.0
Teleop23.5
End1.1
Third
27.20.7
26.827.5
Auto4.0
Teleop22.9
End0.4
red by 3.5
9755
#24
23.70.2
23.523.7
Auto3.2
Teleop18.6
End1.9