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Red137
477651.1
535245.1
781817.5
Blue85
837424.8
495623.1
570413.4
98%Model gave it2%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions12451010015020013785

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+14Auto
+34Teleop
+52Endgame
+52Fouls
AutonomousRed +14
9Leave6
3Coral scored#1
14Coral points3
23Total auto9
TeleoperatedRed +20
19Coral scored#11
70Coral points40
1Processor algae#2
3Net algae#4
6Processor points12
12Net points16
18Algae points28
88Total teleop68
Reef
11L4#4
6L3#4
3L2#2
2L1 · trough#2
26Game pieces#18
BargeRed +18
26Cage & park8
26Total endgame8
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +52
0Foul points0
137Total score85

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
4776
#10
51.11.4
46.948.3
Auto13.7
Teleop30.1
End7.3
red by 26.4
8374
#36
24.81.5
21.422.9
Auto4.5
Teleop18.9
End1.3
Second
5352
#12
45.11.4
43.645.1
Auto9.8
Teleop28.1
End7.2
red by 21.9
4956
#22
23.11.5
20.822.2
Auto4.3
Teleop15.2
End3.7
Third
7818
#26
17.51.8
13.715.5
Auto3.2
Teleop10.2
End4.2
red by 4.1
5704
#40
13.41.8
9.511.3
Auto2.6
Teleop9.0
End1.8
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
88%Auto oddsEarned55%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
17%Coral oddsEarned3%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
75%Barge oddsEarned19%Barge oddsMissed