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Red50
920312.9
551718.3
921529.5
Blue82
924120.2
1062918.4
719531.2
51%Model gave it49%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions67663040506080901005082

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, centred to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+3Auto
Teleop+14
Endgame+26
Fouls+32
AutonomousRed +3
0Leave3
4Coral scored#3
19Coral points13
19Total auto16
TeleoperatedBlue +17
5Coral scored#8
17Coral points28
1Processor algae#0
1Net algae#4
6Processor points0
4Net points16
10Algae points16
27Total teleop44
Reef
3L4#4
3L3#3
2L2#2
1L1 · trough#2
11Game pieces#15
BargeBlue +12
4Cage & park16
4Total endgame16
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +32
0Foul points6
50Total score82

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
9215
#28
29.50.9
29.628.6
Auto6.0
Teleop21.1
End2.3
blue by 1.7
7195
#32
31.20.8
28.329.2
Auto6.5
Teleop19.6
End5.1
Second
5517
#30
18.30.9
18.517.5
Auto6.6
Teleop8.6
End3.1
blue by 1.9
20.20.8
19.019.9
Auto5.3
Teleop11.4
End3.5
Third
9203
#25
12.90.9
16.115.2
Auto4.7
Teleop6.8
End1.4
blue by 5.5
18.40.8
16.417.2
Auto3.9
Teleop12.6
End1.9
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
63%Auto oddsEarned59%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
5%Coral oddsMissed10%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
21%Barge oddsMissed35%Barge oddsEarned