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Red116
719531.2
749129.5
168438.2
Blue114
148144.7
607834.9
1062918.4
47%Model gave it53%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions104109050150200250116114

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+11Auto
Teleop+8
+2Endgame
+2Fouls
AutonomousRed +11
3Leave3
5Coral scored#3
27Coral points16
30Total auto19
TeleoperatedBlue +19
16Coral scored#16
56Coral points57
1Processor algae#2
2Net algae#5
6Processor points12
8Net points20
14Algae points32
70Total teleop89
Reef
8L4#5
4L3#8
6L2#3
3L1 · trough#3
24Game pieces#26
BargeRed +10
16Cage & park6
16Total endgame6
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +2
0Foul points0
116Total score114

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
1684
#18
38.21.5
32.834.4
Auto7.1
Teleop28.1
End3.0
blue by 6.5
1481
#19
44.71.2
42.643.8
Auto7.1
Teleop36.5
End1.0
Second
7195
#32
31.21.5
29.230.7
Auto6.5
Teleop19.6
End5.1
blue by 3.8
6078
#20
34.91.2
34.135.3
Auto3.9
Teleop25.2
End5.9
Third
7491
#16
29.51.5
28.029.5
Auto5.1
Teleop22.0
End2.5
red by 11.1
18.41.2
17.218.4
Auto3.9
Teleop12.6
End1.9
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
60%Auto oddsEarned58%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
7%Coral oddsMissed4%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
22%Barge oddsEarned27%Barge oddsMissed