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Red113
365554.5
495623.1
705645.4
Blue107
5146.2
551718.3
6856.4
46%Model gave it54%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions13013550100150200250113107

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+7
+4Teleop
+6Endgame
+6Fouls
AutonomousBlue +7
9Leave6
4Coral scored#6
21Coral points31
30Total auto37
TeleoperatedRed +11
14Coral scored#9
51Coral points32
1Processor algae#1
1Net algae#3
6Processor points6
4Net points12
10Algae points18
61Total teleop50
Reef
5L4#6
7L3#2
3L2#4
3L1 · trough#3
20Game pieces#19
BargeRed +2
16Cage & park14
16Total endgame14
Penalties & totalRed +6
6Foul points6
113Total score107

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
54.50.3
53.853.5
Auto13.0
Teleop33.5
End8.0
blue by 1.9
68
#7
56.40.5
56.956.4
Auto17.1
Teleop33.0
End6.3
Second
45.40.3
44.744.4
Auto10.4
Teleop29.4
End5.6
blue by 0.8
51
#15
46.20.5
46.646.2
Auto5.6
Teleop32.8
End7.8
Third
4956
#22
23.10.3
22.522.2
Auto4.3
Teleop15.2
End3.7
red by 4.8
5517
#30
18.30.5
18.818.3
Auto6.6
Teleop8.6
End3.1