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Red78
592623.0
609920.2
81845.0
Blue71
505339.9
521418.3
546712.3
54%Model gave it46%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions74690501001502007871

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+7Auto
+9Teleop
+7Endgame
+7Fouls
AutonomousRed +7
3Leave6
3Coral scored#1
13Coral points3
16Total auto9
TeleoperatedRed +2
13Coral scored#13
48Coral points46
1Processor algae#1
1Net algae#1
6Processor points6
4Net points4
10Algae points10
58Total teleop56
Reef
6L4#6
5L3#2
2L2#4
3L1 · trough#2
18Game pieces#16
BargeBlue +2
4Cage & park6
4Total endgame6
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +7
0Foul points0
78Total score71

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
818
#10
45.00.6
35.335.9
Auto6.3
Teleop37.5
End1.2
red by 5.1
5053
#26
39.90.4
34.835.2
Auto5.0
Teleop31.0
End3.9
Second
5926
#23
23.00.6
12.012.6
Auto5.4
Teleop13.2
End4.4
red by 4.7
5214
#31
18.30.4
19.119.5
Auto3.6
Teleop12.2
End2.5
Third
6099
#34
20.20.6
21.822.3
Auto4.3
Teleop14.1
End1.8
red by 7.8
5467
#35
12.30.4
11.411.7
Auto2.0
Teleop7.8
End2.5
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
61%Auto oddsEarned74%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
5%Coral oddsMissed4%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
42%Barge oddsMissed24%Barge oddsMissed