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Red64
889918.0
309828.8
1066525.9
Blue91
506515.3
477944.3
609920.2
30%Model gave it70%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions7389204060801001201406491

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+4
Teleop+13
Endgame+27
Fouls+27
AutonomousBlue +4
6Leave0
1Coral scored#3
6Coral points16
12Total auto16
TeleoperatedBlue +9
10Coral scored#10
36Coral points35
1Processor algae#2
2Net algae#3
6Processor points12
8Net points12
14Algae points24
50Total teleop59
Reef
6L4#4
2L3#4
1L2#3
2L1 · trough#2
14Game pieces#18
BargeBlue +14
2Cage & park16
2Total endgame16
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +27
0Foul points0
64Total score91

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
3098
#11
28.80.2
26.426.2
Auto4.6
Teleop23.8
End0.5
blue by 15.5
44.30.9
38.439.2
Auto8.5
Teleop28.8
End7.0
Second
25.90.2
22.021.8
Auto4.6
Teleop19.2
End2.1
red by 5.7
6099
#34
20.20.9
20.621.5
Auto4.3
Teleop14.1
End1.8
Third
8899
#27
18.00.3
15.014.8
Auto4.2
Teleop11.8
End2.1
red by 2.7
5065
#33
15.30.9
16.517.4
Auto3.9
Teleop10.1
End1.3
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
58%Auto oddsEarned73%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
3%Coral oddsMissed6%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
36%Barge oddsMissed29%Barge oddsEarned