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Red86
317541.0
550937.1
686126.6
Blue168
924581.6
560336.0
598222.4
35%Model gave it65%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions1371555010020025086168

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+6
Teleop+68
Endgame+88
Fouls+82
AutonomousBlue +6
3Leave6
4Coral scored#5
20Coral points23
23Total auto29
TeleoperatedBlue +62
10Coral scored#24
37Coral points87
1Processor algae#3
2Net algae#2
6Processor points18
8Net points8
14Algae points26
51Total teleop113
Reef
4L4#10
4L3#9
3L2#5
3L1 · trough#5
17Game pieces#34
BargeBlue +20
6Cage & park26
6Total endgame26
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +82
6Foul points0
86Total score168

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
3175
#16
41.03.1
46.743.6
Auto8.4
Teleop26.8
End5.9
blue by 40.6
81.61.9
79.581.3
Auto16.6
Teleop56.4
End8.6
Second
5509
#10
37.13.1
47.344.2
Auto8.1
Teleop22.7
End6.2
red by 1.1
5603
#13
36.01.9
37.839.7
Auto8.0
Teleop23.7
End4.4
Third
6861
#18
26.63.1
32.429.3
Auto6.6
Teleop17.0
End3.0
red by 4.2
5982
#28
22.41.9
22.824.7
Auto4.5
Teleop16.1
End1.8
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
95%Auto oddsEarned95%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
33%Coral oddsMissed11%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
94%Barge oddsEarned91%Barge oddsEarned