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Red120
560337.7
317558.3
522927.8
Blue105
777218.8
521664.9
973613.2
73%Model gave it27%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions11999406080140160180200120105

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+14Auto
+1Teleop
+11Endgame
+15Fouls
AutonomousRed +14
6Leave6
8Coral scored#5
38Coral points24
44Total auto30
TeleoperatedBlue +13
11Coral scored#15
38Coral points55
1Processor algae#1
3Net algae#2
6Processor points6
12Net points8
18Algae points14
56Total teleop69
Reef
9L4#6
5L3#7
3L2#5
2L1 · trough#2
23Game pieces#23
BargeRed +10
14Cage & park4
14Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +15
6Foul points2
120Total score105

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
58.30.8
45.446.2
Auto14.9
Teleop38.7
End4.8
blue by 6.6
64.91.1
58.159.2
Auto18.9
Teleop44.4
End1.6
Second
37.70.8
31.632.4
Auto8.4
Teleop24.8
End4.5
red by 19.0
7772
#39
18.81.1
15.216.2
Auto3.6
Teleop14.1
End1.1
Third
27.80.8
22.323.1
Auto4.9
Teleop21.5
End1.4
red by 14.6
9736
#23
13.21.1
10.811.9
Auto4.5
Teleop5.9
End2.9
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
85%Auto oddsEarned52%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
12%Coral oddsMissed18%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
16%Barge oddsEarned11%Barge oddsMissed