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Red76
968519.5
522927.8
552521.3
Blue61
777218.8
1054714.9
606721.5
66%Model gave it34%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions71622040801001207661

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+2Auto
+3Teleop
+13Endgame
+15Fouls
AutonomousRed +2
9Leave9
1Coral scored#1
6Coral points4
15Total auto13
TeleoperatedRed +1
8Coral scored#8
27Coral points30
1Processor algae#1
3Net algae#2
6Processor points6
12Net points8
18Algae points14
45Total teleop44
Reef
4L4#2
2L3#3
2L2#2
1L1 · trough#2
13Game pieces#12
BargeRed +10
14Cage & park4
14Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +15
2Foul points0
76Total score61

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
27.80.7
25.626.2
Auto4.9
Teleop21.5
End1.4
red by 6.3
6067
#25
21.50.0
22.222.2
Auto6.3
Teleop13.4
End1.8
Second
5525
#24
21.30.7
19.720.4
Auto4.8
Teleop14.2
End2.3
red by 2.5
7772
#39
18.80.0
18.118.1
Auto3.6
Teleop14.1
End1.1
Third
9685
#17
19.50.7
15.816.4
Auto6.3
Teleop6.7
End6.5
red by 4.6
14.90.0
15.115.1
Auto3.3
Teleop10.8
End0.8
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
89%Auto oddsEarned53%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
3%Coral oddsMissed5%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
41%Barge oddsEarned9%Barge oddsMissed