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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions8549020406010012014011997

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+10Auto
+30Teleop
+28Endgame
+22Fouls
AutonomousRed +10
6Leave3
3Coral scored#1
13Coral points6
19Total auto9
TeleoperatedRed +20
15Coral scored#13
54Coral points46
2Processor algae#2
5Net algae#2
12Processor points12
20Net points8
32Algae points20
86Total teleop66
Reef
7L4#5
6L3#4
3L2#2
2L1 · trough#3
25Game pieces#18
BargeBlue +2
14Cage & park16
14Total endgame16
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +22
0Foul points6
119Total score97

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
45.54.2
28.732.8
Auto6.5
Teleop32.2
End6.8
red by 12.0
33.53.2
18.221.4
Auto6.5
Teleop21.6
End5.3
Second
3668
#20
28.84.2
26.130.3
Auto4.5
Teleop22.3
End2.0
red by 11.3
6753
#26
17.53.2
16.419.5
Auto2.1
Teleop12.5
End2.9
Third
20.94.2
11.615.8
Auto3.4
Teleop15.8
End1.8
red by 6.5
14.43.2
10.613.7
Auto3.4
Teleop7.5
End3.5
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
31%Auto oddsMissed21%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
5%Coral oddsEarned5%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
23%Barge oddsEarned26%Barge oddsEarned