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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions7459020401001201401603838

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
0Auto0
Teleop+12
Endgame+12
0Fouls0
Autonomouslevel
3Leave3
1Coral scored#1
3Coral points3
6Total auto6
TeleoperatedBlue +12
3Coral scored#6
12Coral points22
0Processor algae#1
1Net algae#0
0Processor points6
4Net points0
4Algae points6
16Total teleop28
Reef
2L4#2
1L3#3
1L2#1
0L1 · trough#1
5Game pieces#8
Bargelevel
4Cage & park4
4Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totallevel
12Foul points0
38Total score38

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
9182
#19
21.6
Auto4.7
Teleop13.7
End3.2
blue by 1.2
4779
#17
22.9
Auto4.2
Teleop14.8
End3.9
Second
7553
#18
17.2
Auto4.3
Teleop10.6
End2.3
red by 2.2
7202
#36
15.0
Auto2.7
Teleop8.2
End4.2
Third
9455
#37
9.2
Auto1.9
Teleop5.6
End1.7
blue by 3.1
9204
#35
12.3
Auto2.2
Teleop9.2
End0.8
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
28%Auto oddsMissed42%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
4%Coral oddsMissed4%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
64%Barge oddsEarned29%Barge oddsMissed