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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions131695010015020012198

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+1Auto
+19Teleop
+17Endgame
+23Fouls
AutonomousRed +1
0Leave3
4Coral scored#3
20Coral points16
20Total auto19
TeleoperatedRed +18
14Coral scored#8
49Coral points29
2Processor algae#3
5Net algae#4
12Processor points18
20Net points16
32Algae points34
81Total teleop63
Reef
7L4#5
4L3#3
5L2#2
2L1 · trough#1
25Game pieces#18
BargeBlue +2
14Cage & park16
14Total endgame16
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +23
6Foul points0
121Total score98

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
51.10.1
42.242.3
Auto7.6
Teleop33.9
End9.6
red by 5.7
45.52.8
39.842.6
Auto6.5
Teleop32.2
End6.8
Second
40.10.1
37.137.1
Auto8.9
Teleop28.6
End2.6
red by 21.9
18.23.0
17.720.7
Auto4.5
Teleop11.8
End1.9
Third
548
#13
31.40.1
29.229.3
Auto4.7
Teleop25.4
End1.3
red by 17.2
7221
#15
14.22.8
8.411.2
Auto5.0
Teleop6.3
End2.9
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
96%Auto oddsEarned38%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
6%Coral oddsMissed8%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
68%Barge oddsEarned64%Barge oddsEarned