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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions69470204060801001203735

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+5
+2Teleop
+4Endgame
+2Fouls
AutonomousBlue +5
6Leave9
1Coral scored#2
7Coral points9
13Total auto18
TeleoperatedRed +7
3Coral scored#4
12Coral points13
0Processor algae#0
2Net algae#0
0Processor points0
8Net points0
8Algae points0
20Total teleop13
Reef
2L4#2
1L3#2
1L2#1
0L1 · trough#1
6Game pieces#6
BargeRed +2
4Cage & park2
4Total endgame2
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +2
0Foul points2
37Total score35

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
7056
#22
24.52.4
26.824.4
Auto5.8
Teleop17.6
End1.1
red by 7.3
7553
#18
17.20.9
20.019.1
Auto4.3
Teleop10.6
End2.3
Second
308
#25
13.52.4
18.015.6
Auto4.6
Teleop7.2
End1.7
red by 2.2
7178
#38
11.30.8
12.311.4
Auto3.0
Teleop6.1
End2.2
Third
9455
#37
9.22.5
15.212.6
Auto1.9
Teleop5.6
End1.7
blue by 2.0
8519
#31
11.20.8
8.87.9
Auto6.0
Teleop4.3
End1.0
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
30%Auto oddsMissed32%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
6%Coral oddsMissed4%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
28%Barge oddsMissed54%Barge oddsMissed