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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions10658020408012014016011083

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+7Auto
+37Teleop
+27Endgame
+27Fouls
AutonomousRed +7
3Leave9
3Coral scored#1
16Coral points3
19Total auto12
TeleoperatedRed +30
15Coral scored#11
53Coral points39
1Processor algae#1
7Net algae#3
6Processor points6
28Net points12
34Algae points18
87Total teleop57
Reef
5L4#5
6L3#3
4L2#2
3L1 · trough#2
26Game pieces#16
BargeBlue +10
4Cage & park14
4Total endgame14
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +27
0Foul points0
110Total score83

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
40.11.0
37.338.2
Auto8.9
Teleop28.6
End2.6
red by 12.9
27.21.4
22.123.5
Auto3.3
Teleop16.1
End7.8
Second
3668
#20
28.81.0
25.926.9
Auto4.5
Teleop22.3
End2.0
red by 7.1
9182
#19
21.61.6
18.520.1
Auto4.7
Teleop13.7
End3.2
Third
17.21.0
18.419.4
Auto4.7
Teleop11.5
End1.0
red by 4.2
6538
#34
13.01.4
10.111.6
Auto4.1
Teleop7.1
End1.7
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
82%Auto oddsEarned34%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
7%Coral oddsMissed3%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
18%Barge oddsMissed48%Barge oddsEarned