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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions10784406010012014016013850

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+13Auto
+58Teleop
+82Endgame
+88Fouls
AutonomousRed +13
6Leave6
3Coral scored#0
13Coral points0
19Total auto6
TeleoperatedRed +45
16Coral scored#7
59Coral points26
2Processor algae#2
4Net algae#1
12Processor points12
16Net points4
28Algae points16
87Total teleop42
Reef
8L4#2
6L3#1
2L2#2
3L1 · trough#2
25Game pieces#10
BargeRed +24
26Cage & park2
26Total endgame2
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +88
6Foul points0
138Total score50

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
40.52.3
38.040.3
Auto8.3
Teleop25.8
End6.4
red by 14.7
4362
#29
25.82.5
28.225.7
Auto4.1
Teleop18.8
End2.9
Second
3668
#20
28.82.3
25.828.1
Auto4.5
Teleop22.3
End2.0
red by 4.3
7056
#22
24.52.5
26.924.3
Auto5.8
Teleop17.6
End1.1
Third
27.22.3
25.327.6
Auto3.3
Teleop16.1
End7.8
red by 10.0
7553
#18
17.22.8
19.817.0
Auto4.3
Teleop10.6
End2.3
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
78%Auto oddsEarned60%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
4%Coral oddsMissed5%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
72%Barge oddsEarned39%Barge oddsMissed