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Red16
598219.0
171123.1
828615.4
Blue52
261921.5
975911.8
592612.1
68%Model gave it32%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions83682040601001201401652

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+3
Teleop+34
Endgame+32
Fouls+36
AutonomousBlue +3
3Leave6
0Coral scored#0
0Coral points0
3Total auto6
TeleoperatedBlue +31
1Coral scored#7
5Coral points24
0Processor algae#0
0Net algae#3
0Processor points0
0Net points12
0Algae points12
5Total teleop36
Reef
1L4#3
0L3#2
0L2#1
0L1 · trough#1
1Game pieces#10
BargeRed +2
6Cage & park4
6Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +36
2Foul points6
16Total score52

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
1711
#14
23.16.5
27.421.0
Auto4.3
Teleop13.1
End5.7
red by 1.6
2619
#12
21.51.8
22.320.5
Auto4.0
Teleop12.3
End5.3
Second
5982
#24
19.06.5
21.114.6
Auto4.5
Teleop12.7
End1.7
red by 6.8
5926
#26
12.11.8
24.122.3
Auto3.8
Teleop3.3
End5.1
Third
8286
#35
15.46.5
23.717.2
Auto1.9
Teleop11.3
End2.2
red by 3.6
9759
#36
11.81.1
16.014.9
Auto3.2
Teleop7.7
End0.9
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
49%Auto oddsMissed47%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
6%Coral oddsMissed4%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
38%Barge oddsMissed44%Barge oddsMissed