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Red38
159615.9
592612.1
556014.7
Blue41
956812.8
965021.0
71099.6
60%Model gave it40%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions534101001503841

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+3
Teleop+1
Endgame+3
Fouls+3
AutonomousBlue +3
3Leave3
1Coral scored#2
6Coral points9
9Total auto12
TeleoperatedRed +2
6Coral scored#5
21Coral points19
0Processor algae#0
1Net algae#1
0Processor points0
4Net points4
4Algae points4
25Total teleop23
Reef
3L4#2
2L3#3
1L2#1
1L1 · trough#1
8Game pieces#8
BargeBlue +2
4Cage & park6
4Total endgame6
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +3
0Foul points0
38Total score41

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
1596
#23
15.91.3
19.117.8
Auto3.1
Teleop11.5
End1.3
blue by 5.1
9650
#10
21.00.0
17.717.8
Auto4.0
Teleop15.0
End2.0
Second
5560
#38
14.71.3
13.612.4
Auto3.7
Teleop9.1
End2.0
red by 1.9
9568
#17
12.80.0
10.010.0
Auto3.8
Teleop7.4
End1.7
Third
5926
#26
12.11.3
13.612.3
Auto3.8
Teleop3.3
End5.1
red by 2.5
7109
#33
9.60.1
9.69.7
Auto3.7
Teleop4.2
End1.8
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
35%Auto oddsMissed40%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
3%Coral oddsMissed2%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
34%Barge oddsMissed28%Barge oddsMissed