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Red111
612130.5
522921.5
967218.2
Blue125
553434.7
171123.1
610023.8
35%Model gave it65%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions92103406080120140160111125

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+4
+2Teleop
Endgame+8
Fouls+14
AutonomousBlue +4
0Leave0
2Coral scored#3
12Coral points16
12Total auto16
TeleoperatedRed +6
16Coral scored#14
59Coral points51
2Processor algae#3
6Net algae#5
12Processor points18
24Net points20
36Algae points38
95Total teleop89
Reef
7L4#4
7L3#6
2L2#4
2L1 · trough#3
26Game pieces#25
BargeBlue +10
4Cage & park14
4Total endgame14
Penalties & totalBlue +14
0Foul points6
111Total score125

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
30.50.5
30.330.7
Auto5.6
Teleop22.8
End2.1
blue by 4.2
34.70.4
33.133.5
Auto4.5
Teleop25.5
End4.7
Second
5229
#21
21.50.5
21.221.6
Auto4.3
Teleop15.7
End1.5
blue by 2.4
6100
#25
23.80.4
22.322.7
Auto3.8
Teleop16.2
End3.8
Third
18.20.5
17.918.4
Auto3.4
Teleop12.5
End2.3
blue by 4.9
1711
#14
23.10.4
21.622.0
Auto4.3
Teleop13.1
End5.7