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Red192
828060.4
319335.3
402880.0
Blue179
54840.5
170181.2
721142.5
72%Model gave it28%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions19516650100150250192179

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+21Auto
+1Teleop
+13Endgame
+13Fouls
AutonomousRed +21
9Leave0
10Coral scored#7
49Coral points37
58Total auto37
TeleoperatedBlue +20
19Coral scored#18
70Coral points66
3Processor algae#5
5Net algae#8
18Processor points30
20Net points32
38Algae points62
108Total teleop128
Reef
7L4#9
9L3#8
7L2#5
6L1 · trough#3
37Game pieces#38
BargeRed +12
26Cage & park14
26Total endgame14
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +13
0Foul points0
192Total score179

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
80.01.3
81.482.8
Auto17.3
Teleop51.5
End11.3
blue by 1.2
81.21.6
78.480.0
Auto20.7
Teleop51.8
End8.7
Second
60.41.3
51.953.2
Auto17.8
Teleop32.8
End9.8
red by 17.9
7211
#12
42.51.6
34.736.3
Auto7.7
Teleop26.4
End8.3
Third
3193
#10
35.31.3
33.334.6
Auto8.2
Teleop25.7
End1.4
blue by 5.2
548
#20
40.51.6
36.538.1
Auto9.3
Teleop28.1
End3.1
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
97%Auto oddsEarned97%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
83%Coral oddsMissed59%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
87%Barge oddsEarned88%Barge oddsEarned