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Red193
402880.0
170181.2
1034928.4
Blue182
214556.8
103841.4
721142.5
90%Model gave it10%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions22714650100200250300350193182

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+14Auto
+13Teleop
+11Endgame
+11Fouls
AutonomousRed +14
6Leave6
8Coral scored#5
38Coral points24
44Total auto30
TeleoperatedBlue +1
22Coral scored#23
79Coral points82
3Processor algae#2
7Net algae#8
18Processor points12
28Net points32
46Algae points44
125Total teleop126
Reef
12L4#12
9L3#9
4L2#5
5L1 · trough#2
40Game pieces#38
BargeBlue +2
24Cage & park26
24Total endgame26
Penalties & totalRed +11
0Foul points0
193Total score182

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
81.20.1
81.581.3
Auto20.7
Teleop51.8
End8.7
red by 24.4
2145
#11
56.80.8
55.656.4
Auto19.3
Teleop32.0
End5.5
Second
80.00.1
80.380.1
Auto17.3
Teleop51.5
End11.3
red by 37.5
7211
#12
42.50.8
41.342.1
Auto7.7
Teleop26.4
End8.3
Third
28.40.1
28.528.4
Auto6.3
Teleop21.9
End0.1
blue by 13.0
1038
#17
41.40.8
40.241.0
Auto3.4
Teleop33.9
End4.1