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Red129
506638.5
332243.6
837331.1
Blue118
89437.7
615233.8
511441.8
45%Model gave it55%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions11812350100150200129118

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+3
+25Teleop
+9Endgame
+11Fouls
AutonomousBlue +3
3Leave6
7Coral scored#7
34Coral points34
37Total auto40
TeleoperatedRed +28
16Coral scored#14
58Coral points50
2Processor algae#0
4Net algae#2
12Processor points0
16Net points8
28Algae points8
86Total teleop58
Reef
9L4#9
6L3#4
5L2#5
3L1 · trough#3
29Game pieces#23
BargeBlue +16
4Cage & park20
4Total endgame20
Penalties & totalRed +11
2Foul points0
129Total score118

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
3322
#15
43.60.3
43.343.6
Auto10.8
Teleop25.0
End7.8
red by 1.9
5114
#16
41.80.1
41.641.8
Auto11.8
Teleop24.6
End5.4
Second
38.50.3
38.138.5
Auto10.3
Teleop26.9
End1.3
red by 0.8
894
#7
37.70.1
37.537.7
Auto8.4
Teleop22.0
End7.3
Third
8373
#18
31.10.3
30.731.0
Auto5.6
Teleop22.8
End2.7
blue by 2.8
6152
#23
33.80.1
33.733.8
Auto6.8
Teleop24.0
End3.1