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Red79
528222.6
26049.0
46949.2
Blue73
149843.8
499822.8
547811.6
61%Model gave it39%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions826001001502002503007973

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+7
+10Teleop
+12Endgame
+6Fouls
AutonomousBlue +7
3Leave9
1Coral scored#1
6Coral points7
9Total auto16
TeleoperatedRed +17
9Coral scored#6
34Coral points23
2Processor algae#1
2Net algae#2
12Processor points6
8Net points8
20Algae points14
54Total teleop37
Reef
3L4#3
3L3#2
2L2#1
2L1 · trough#1
14Game pieces#10
BargeRed +2
16Cage & park14
16Total endgame14
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +6
0Foul points6
79Total score73

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
469
#15
49.20.4
41.642.1
Auto13.3
Teleop32.7
End3.3
red by 5.4
1498
#10
43.80.6
28.729.3
Auto8.2
Teleop25.6
End10.0
Second
5282
#16
22.60.4
12.713.2
Auto3.8
Teleop12.4
End6.4
blue by 0.2
4998
#39
22.80.6
19.820.4
Auto5.2
Teleop15.3
End2.3
Third
2604
#40
9.00.7
18.018.7
Auto2.6
Teleop6.6
End-0.2
blue by 2.6
5478
#29
11.60.6
9.29.8
Auto2.7
Teleop8.2
End0.8
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
42%Auto oddsMissed36%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
4%Coral oddsMissed4%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
16%Barge oddsEarned49%Barge oddsEarned