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Red123
967325.6
368834.6
887336.2
Blue10
861121.0
759813.7
353724.9
60%Model gave it40%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions827720406010012012310

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+3Auto
+55Teleop
+67Endgame
+113Fouls
AutonomousRed +3
3Leave0
1Coral scored#1
6Coral points6
9Total auto6
TeleoperatedRed +52
11Coral scored#0
38Coral points0
1Processor algae#0
2Net algae#0
6Processor points0
8Net points0
14Algae points0
52Total teleop0
Reef
5L4#1
3L3#0
2L2#0
2L1 · trough#0
15Game pieces#1
BargeRed +12
16Cage & park4
16Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +113
46Foul points0
123Total score10

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
36.20.8
23.824.6
Auto3.1
Teleop26.1
End7.0
red by 11.4
3537
#31
24.93.3
23.620.2
Auto4.6
Teleop17.7
End2.5
Second
34.60.8
23.524.2
Auto4.6
Teleop26.2
End3.8
red by 13.6
8611
#24
21.05.6
19.013.4
Auto3.7
Teleop15.6
End1.7
Third
9673
#12
25.60.8
18.118.9
Auto3.7
Teleop13.9
End8.1
red by 11.9
7598
#33
13.75.6
17.512.0
Auto2.3
Teleop9.7
End1.7
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
44%Auto oddsMissed57%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
4%Coral oddsMissed4%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
25%Barge oddsEarned42%Barge oddsMissed