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Red60
967325.6
917628.3
556017.0
Blue45
171135.0
550412.0
224616.8
61%Model gave it39%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions75672040601001206045

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+1
+5Teleop
Endgame+3
+15Fouls
AutonomousBlue +1
6Leave9
1Coral scored#0
3Coral points1
9Total auto10
TeleoperatedRed +6
5Coral scored#4
17Coral points15
1Processor algae#1
1Net algae#0
6Processor points6
4Net points0
10Algae points6
27Total teleop21
Reef
2L4#1
2L3#1
1L2#1
1L1 · trough#1
8Game pieces#5
BargeBlue +8
6Cage & park14
6Total endgame14
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +15
18Foul points0
60Total score45

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
9176
#25
28.33.4
28.124.7
Auto3.6
Teleop20.0
End4.7
blue by 6.7
1711
#11
35.01.1
23.122.1
Auto8.8
Teleop20.7
End5.6
Second
9673
#12
25.62.1
21.119.0
Auto3.7
Teleop13.9
End8.1
red by 8.8
2246
#23
16.81.1
18.317.3
Auto2.5
Teleop11.2
End3.2
Third
5560
#21
17.02.1
14.712.7
Auto3.6
Teleop12.6
End0.9
red by 5.0
5504
#38
12.01.8
16.414.7
Auto1.8
Teleop6.3
End3.9
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
56%Auto oddsMissed22%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
4%Coral oddsMissed4%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
33%Barge oddsEarned61%Barge oddsEarned