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Red87
719530.6
377030.9
550412.0
Blue100
498320.1
542427.6
519326.7
35%Model gave it65%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions687720406010012087100

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+3
Teleop+19
Endgame+9
Fouls+13
AutonomousBlue +3
0Leave0
2Coral scored#2
9Coral points12
9Total auto12
TeleoperatedBlue +16
13Coral scored#18
46Coral points66
1Processor algae#1
3Net algae#2
6Processor points6
12Net points8
18Algae points14
64Total teleop80
Reef
7L4#10
4L3#4
2L2#4
2L1 · trough#2
19Game pieces#23
BargeRed +10
14Cage & park4
14Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +13
0Foul points4
87Total score100

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
30.92.7
28.130.9
Auto3.2
Teleop21.8
End5.9
red by 3.3
5424
#17
27.63.1
27.430.5
Auto4.3
Teleop20.2
End3.1
Second
7195
#10
30.61.6
21.423.0
Auto6.0
Teleop20.0
End4.5
red by 3.9
5193
#20
26.73.1
20.423.5
Auto3.0
Teleop22.6
End1.1
Third
5504
#38
12.02.7
12.915.6
Auto1.8
Teleop6.3
End3.9
blue by 8.1
4983
#15
20.11.8
20.422.3
Auto5.4
Teleop13.1
End1.6
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
23%Auto oddsMissed77%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
6%Coral oddsMissed5%Coral oddsEarned
Barge
57%Barge oddsEarned18%Barge oddsMissed