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Red140
361826.5
171135.0
353724.9
Blue123
917628.3
439841.6
1060522.2
29%Model gave it71%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions7897204060120140160140123

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+14Auto
Teleop+1
+11Endgame
+17Fouls
AutonomousRed +14
9Leave6
3Coral scored#1
14Coral points3
23Total auto9
TeleoperatedBlue +15
18Coral scored#22
63Coral points80
2Processor algae#1
4Net algae#5
12Processor points6
16Net points20
28Algae points26
91Total teleop106
Reef
7L4#8
7L3#8
4L2#3
3L1 · trough#4
27Game pieces#29
BargeRed +12
14Cage & park2
14Total endgame2
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +17
12Foul points6
140Total score123

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
1711
#11
35.02.6
24.427.0
Auto8.8
Teleop20.7
End5.6
blue by 6.6
4398
#19
41.62.4
29.031.4
Auto6.3
Teleop33.6
End1.6
Second
26.52.6
19.121.7
Auto6.7
Teleop17.9
End1.9
blue by 1.9
9176
#25
28.32.4
23.325.7
Auto3.6
Teleop20.0
End4.7
Third
3537
#31
24.92.6
21.924.4
Auto4.6
Teleop17.7
End2.5
red by 2.7
22.22.4
22.224.6
Auto5.3
Teleop16.0
End0.9
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
71%Auto oddsEarned69%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
2%Coral oddsMissed4%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
66%Barge oddsEarned41%Barge oddsMissed