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Red223
170691.8
495918.9
198772.5
Blue199
198675.0
580177.2
68%Model gave it32%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions20116950100150250300350223199

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+11Auto
+22Teleop
+22Endgame
+24Fouls
AutonomousRed +11
9Leave6
11Coral scored#9
53Coral points45
62Total auto51
TeleoperatedRed +11
26Coral scored#23
93Coral points82
2Processor algae#2
7Net algae#7
12Processor points12
28Net points28
40Algae points40
133Total teleop122
Reef
10L4#11
7L3#9
10L2#6
10L1 · trough#6
46Game pieces#41
Bargelevel
26Cage & park26
26Total endgame26
Penalties & totalRed +24
2Foul points0
223Total score199

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
91.80.9
90.691.5
Auto22.6
Teleop57.4
End11.8
red by 14.6
77.20.9
75.776.6
Auto17.8
Teleop50.9
End8.5
Second
72.50.9
71.372.2
Auto18.6
Teleop45.4
End8.4
blue by 2.5
75.00.9
73.474.4
Auto18.3
Teleop48.0
End8.7
Third
4959
#27
18.90.9
17.718.6
Auto4.1
Teleop13.3
End1.4
red by 9.4
9.50.9
8.08.9
Auto3.7
Teleop4.7
End1.1