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Red129
198772.5
172326.7
75729.1
Blue144
445514.3
198675.0
747224.7
78%Model gave it22%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions15411050200250129144

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+3
Teleop+27
Endgame+17
Fouls+15
AutonomousBlue +3
3Leave9
5Coral scored#5
27Coral points24
30Total auto33
TeleoperatedBlue +24
15Coral scored#22
55Coral points79
1Processor algae#3
5Net algae#2
6Processor points18
20Net points8
26Algae points26
81Total teleop105
Reef
7L4#10
6L3#8
5L2#6
2L1 · trough#3
26Game pieces#32
BargeRed +10
16Cage & park6
16Total endgame6
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +15
2Foul points0
129Total score144

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
72.50.3
76.876.5
Auto18.6
Teleop45.4
End8.4
blue by 2.5
75.02.9
65.268.1
Auto18.3
Teleop48.0
End8.7
Second
757
#4
29.10.3
27.227.0
Auto4.5
Teleop17.5
End7.1
red by 4.4
24.72.9
19.122.0
Auto6.5
Teleop14.5
End3.7
Third
1723
#22
26.70.3
26.926.6
Auto3.5
Teleop20.8
End2.4
red by 12.4
4455
#16
14.32.9
16.319.2
Auto6.2
Teleop2.8
End5.3
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
72%Auto oddsEarned78%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
18%Coral oddsMissed8%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
97%Barge oddsEarned74%Barge oddsMissed