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Red176
245725.6
180223.8
580177.2
Blue135
184749.1
882543.6
199722.0
42%Model gave it58%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions124128100120140160176135

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, centred to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+8Auto
+47Teleop
+37Endgame
+41Fouls
AutonomousRed +8
9Leave0
4Coral scored#4
21Coral points22
30Total auto22
TeleoperatedRed +39
25Coral scored#19
90Coral points69
3Processor algae#2
7Net algae#4
18Processor points12
28Net points16
46Algae points28
136Total teleop97
Reef
11L4#10
7L3#5
6L2#6
5L1 · trough#2
39Game pieces#29
BargeBlue +10
6Cage & park16
6Total endgame16
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +41
4Foul points0
176Total score135

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
77.22.9
67.570.4
Auto17.8
Teleop50.9
End8.5
red by 28.2
1847
#19
49.10.2
42.642.7
Auto8.9
Teleop34.5
End5.7
Second
2457
#20
25.62.9
25.928.8
Auto4.2
Teleop19.1
End2.3
blue by 18.0
43.60.2
43.143.3
Auto4.2
Teleop33.5
End5.9
Third
1802
#15
23.82.9
15.718.6
Auto2.1
Teleop20.2
End1.6
red by 1.8
1997
#26
22.00.2
26.326.5
Auto4.3
Teleop15.9
End1.8
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
68%Auto oddsMissed58%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
30%Coral oddsEarned4%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
51%Barge oddsMissed51%Barge oddsEarned