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Red140
684321.4
882543.6
198675.0
Blue132
198772.5
512629.7
526837.8
47%Model gave it53%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions1411550100200300400500600140132

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+21
Teleop+4
+8Endgame
+8Fouls
AutonomousBlue +21
9Leave6
1Coral scored#6
7Coral points31
16Total auto37
TeleoperatedRed +17
19Coral scored#19
70Coral points69
3Processor algae#1
5Net algae#4
18Processor points6
20Net points16
38Algae points22
108Total teleop91
Reef
6L4#6
6L3#9
3L2#6
5L1 · trough#4
28Game pieces#30
BargeRed +12
16Cage & park4
16Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +8
0Foul points0
140Total score132

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
75.00.5
69.469.9
Auto18.3
Teleop48.0
End8.7
red by 2.5
72.50.7
72.271.5
Auto18.6
Teleop45.4
End8.4
Second
43.60.5
39.339.8
Auto4.2
Teleop33.5
End5.9
red by 5.8
5268
#17
37.80.7
34.333.6
Auto9.0
Teleop23.8
End5.0
Third
6843
#14
21.40.5
18.418.8
Auto4.1
Teleop10.1
End7.2
blue by 8.2
5126
#12
29.70.7
30.629.9
Auto8.0
Teleop21.2
End0.5
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
79%Auto oddsEarned90%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
11%Coral oddsMissed28%Coral oddsEarned
Barge
94%Barge oddsEarned83%Barge oddsMissed