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Red157
942839.7
450059.9
526837.8
Blue50
172326.7
806925.4
882543.6
86%Model gave it14%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions1539105020025030015750

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+31Auto
+87Teleop
+107Endgame
+107Fouls
AutonomousRed +31
3Leave3
7Coral scored#1
34Coral points3
37Total auto6
TeleoperatedRed +56
19Coral scored#6
68Coral points22
2Processor algae#1
4Net algae#3
12Processor points6
16Net points12
28Algae points18
96Total teleop40
Reef
7L4#2
10L3#2
7L2#1
2L1 · trough#2
32Game pieces#11
BargeRed +20
24Cage & park4
24Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +107
0Foul points0
157Total score50

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
59.91.5
59.761.1
Auto17.4
Teleop35.1
End7.4
red by 16.3
43.62.8
41.738.9
Auto4.2
Teleop33.5
End5.9
Second
39.71.5
37.839.3
Auto6.7
Teleop29.9
End3.1
red by 13.0
1723
#22
26.72.8
26.723.9
Auto3.5
Teleop20.8
End2.4
Third
5268
#17
37.81.5
37.639.0
Auto9.0
Teleop23.8
End5.0
red by 12.4
8069
#25
25.42.8
23.520.7
Auto2.9
Teleop19.8
End2.7
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
85%Auto oddsEarned29%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
12%Coral oddsMissed2%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
68%Barge oddsEarned79%Barge oddsMissed