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Red55
180223.8
495918.9
501326.7
Blue73
747224.7
87199.8
512629.7
78%Model gave it22%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions101660501502005573

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+3Auto
Teleop+16
Endgame+24
Fouls+18
AutonomousRed +3
9Leave0
1Coral scored#3
7Coral points13
16Total auto13
TeleoperatedBlue +19
5Coral scored#8
17Coral points28
1Processor algae#1
1Net algae#3
6Processor points6
4Net points12
10Algae points18
27Total teleop46
Reef
2L4#3
2L3#4
1L2#2
1L1 · trough#2
8Game pieces#15
BargeBlue +8
6Cage & park14
6Total endgame14
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +18
6Foul points0
55Total score73

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
5013
#23
26.73.0
42.139.1
Auto6.7
Teleop15.7
End4.3
blue by 3.0
5126
#12
29.70.3
32.933.2
Auto8.0
Teleop21.2
End0.5
Second
1802
#15
23.83.0
17.914.9
Auto2.1
Teleop20.2
End1.6
blue by 0.9
24.70.4
17.818.2
Auto6.5
Teleop14.5
End3.7
Third
4959
#27
18.93.0
24.521.6
Auto4.1
Teleop13.3
End1.4
red by 9.1
8719
#21
9.80.3
10.110.4
Auto3.2
Teleop4.7
End1.9
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
68%Auto oddsEarned31%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
11%Coral oddsMissed5%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
37%Barge oddsMissed7%Barge oddsEarned