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Red212
170691.8
495918.9
198772.5
Blue148
184749.1
882543.6
806925.4
98%Model gave it2%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions214104050150200250300212148

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+21Auto
+62Teleop
+72Endgame
+64Fouls
AutonomousRed +21
6Leave3
8Coral scored#4
38Coral points20
44Total auto23
TeleoperatedRed +41
33Coral scored#21
118Coral points77
2Processor algae#2
3Net algae#3
12Processor points12
12Net points12
24Algae points24
142Total teleop101
Reef
13L4#11
12L3#6
10L2#5
6L1 · trough#3
46Game pieces#30
BargeRed +10
26Cage & park16
26Total endgame16
Penalties & totalRed +64
0Foul points8
212Total score148

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
91.80.6
91.291.9
Auto22.6
Teleop57.4
End11.8
red by 42.7
1847
#19
49.10.7
44.545.2
Auto8.9
Teleop34.5
End5.7
Second
72.50.6
71.972.6
Auto18.6
Teleop45.4
End8.4
red by 28.9
43.60.7
39.039.7
Auto4.2
Teleop33.5
End5.9
Third
4959
#27
18.90.6
18.319.0
Auto4.1
Teleop13.3
End1.4
blue by 6.5
8069
#25
25.40.7
20.821.6
Auto2.9
Teleop19.8
End2.7