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Red30
245018.7
304211.2
297712.2
Blue34
217718.1
369116.7
321214.1
22%Model gave it78%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions426902060801001201401603034

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
0Auto0
Teleop+4
Endgame+4
Fouls+4
Autonomouslevel
6Leave3
0Coral scored#1
0Coral points3
6Total auto6
TeleoperatedBlue +4
4Coral scored#5
14Coral points18
1Processor algae#1
0Net algae#0
6Processor points6
0Net points0
6Algae points6
20Total teleop24
Reef
1L4#2
1L3#2
1L2#1
1L1 · trough#1
5Game pieces#7
Bargelevel
4Cage & park4
4Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +4
0Foul points0
30Total score34

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
2450
#37
18.71.1
15.314.2
Auto2.3
Teleop13.9
End2.4
red by 0.5
2177
#32
18.12.6
15.412.8
Auto1.6
Teleop15.6
End1.0
Second
2977
#42
12.21.1
12.411.3
Auto2.7
Teleop7.8
End1.7
blue by 4.5
3691
#45
16.72.6
25.022.4
Auto2.6
Teleop11.1
End2.9
Third
3042
#41
11.21.1
12.111.0
Auto3.2
Teleop6.0
End2.0
blue by 2.9
3212
#21
14.12.6
17.114.5
Auto4.6
Teleop7.6
End1.9
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
15%Auto oddsMissed17%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
4%Coral oddsMissed4%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
29%Barge oddsMissed43%Barge oddsMissed