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Red80
173254.4
642120.7
338116.5
Blue96
284762.8
284619.0
329427.1
61%Model gave it39%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions97850501508096

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+17
Teleop+30
Endgame+22
Fouls+16
AutonomousBlue +17
0Leave6
3Coral scored#5
13Coral points24
13Total auto30
TeleoperatedBlue +13
10Coral scored#11
35Coral points40
1Processor algae#1
1Net algae#3
6Processor points6
4Net points12
10Algae points18
45Total teleop58
Reef
5L4#5
3L3#6
3L2#2
2L1 · trough#3
15Game pieces#20
BargeRed +8
14Cage & park6
14Total endgame6
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +16
8Foul points2
80Total score96

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
54.41.7
41.539.8
Auto12.2
Teleop35.7
End6.5
blue by 8.4
62.81.9
30.332.1
Auto14.1
Teleop40.2
End8.5
Second
6421
#47
20.71.7
25.023.4
Auto4.7
Teleop14.1
End1.9
blue by 6.4
3294
#24
27.11.9
19.421.3
Auto4.0
Teleop16.1
End7.1
Third
3381
#48
16.51.7
17.916.2
Auto3.7
Teleop8.2
End4.7
blue by 2.5
2846
#25
19.01.9
24.526.3
Auto5.9
Teleop10.7
End2.5
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
54%Auto oddsMissed49%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
5%Coral oddsMissed5%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
44%Barge oddsEarned51%Barge oddsMissed