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Red123
957816.6
173254.4
326729.2
Blue120
558619.3
851620.8
670928.9
59%Model gave it41%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions9082204060100120140160123120

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+4
Teleop+11
+3Endgame
+3Fouls
AutonomousBlue +4
0Leave6
3Coral scored#3
16Coral points14
16Total auto20
TeleoperatedBlue +7
14Coral scored#16
49Coral points58
3Processor algae#2
6Net algae#7
18Processor points12
24Net points28
42Algae points40
91Total teleop98
Reef
7L4#8
5L3#6
3L2#3
2L1 · trough#2
26Game pieces#28
BargeRed +14
16Cage & park2
16Total endgame2
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +3
0Foul points0
123Total score120

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
54.42.7
39.842.5
Auto12.2
Teleop35.7
End6.5
red by 25.5
6709
#23
28.93.1
24.327.4
Auto9.5
Teleop18.5
End0.8
Second
3267
#36
29.22.7
17.219.9
Auto4.1
Teleop23.9
End1.2
red by 8.4
8516
#28
20.83.1
24.627.7
Auto4.4
Teleop14.3
End2.1
Third
9578
#35
16.62.7
20.323.0
Auto3.7
Teleop11.7
End1.2
blue by 2.7
5586
#53
19.33.1
22.125.2
Auto4.1
Teleop13.1
End2.2
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
53%Auto oddsEarned51%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
5%Coral oddsMissed5%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
46%Barge oddsEarned28%Barge oddsMissed