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Red87
465625.9
265421.6
474130.5
Blue69
779722.2
565343.5
761926.4
33%Model gave it67%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions85992040601201401608769

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+4Auto
Teleop+2
+18Endgame
+18Fouls
AutonomousRed +4
6Leave6
1Coral scored#1
7Coral points3
13Total auto9
TeleoperatedBlue +6
9Coral scored#11
34Coral points40
1Processor algae#1
2Net algae#2
6Processor points6
8Net points8
14Algae points14
48Total teleop54
Reef
4L4#5
2L3#3
2L2#2
2L1 · trough#2
13Game pieces#15
BargeRed +20
26Cage & park6
26Total endgame6
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +18
0Foul points0
87Total score69

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
4741
#16
30.51.3
26.227.5
Auto5.1
Teleop22.5
End2.9
blue by 13.0
5653
#17
43.51.9
29.227.3
Auto7.5
Teleop32.4
End3.6
Second
25.91.3
21.622.9
Auto4.0
Teleop13.0
End8.9
blue by 0.5
7619
#21
26.41.9
28.626.7
Auto3.9
Teleop18.5
End4.0
Third
2654
#30
21.61.3
27.428.7
Auto2.9
Teleop13.9
End4.8
blue by 0.6
7797
#29
22.21.9
28.426.5
Auto4.7
Teleop13.9
End3.6
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
22%Auto oddsEarned48%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
7%Coral oddsMissed5%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
65%Barge oddsEarned50%Barge oddsMissed