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Red117
725756.0
305840.1
423821.3
Blue97
266729.0
785839.9
825540.1
67%Model gave it33%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions116105608014016018011797

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+17Auto
Teleop+8
+14Endgame
+20Fouls
AutonomousRed +17
3Leave0
5Coral scored#2
23Coral points9
26Total auto9
TeleoperatedBlue +25
11Coral scored#14
39Coral points50
2Processor algae#1
2Net algae#7
12Processor points6
8Net points28
20Algae points34
59Total teleop84
Reef
6L4#5
4L3#3
4L2#4
2L1 · trough#4
20Game pieces#24
BargeRed +22
26Cage & park4
26Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +20
6Foul points0
117Total score97

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
7257
#12
56.00.4
51.051.4
Auto12.3
Teleop37.7
End6.0
red by 15.9
8255
#11
40.10.2
31.331.5
Auto5.8
Teleop29.8
End4.5
Second
40.10.4
35.836.2
Auto6.5
Teleop25.8
End7.8
red by 0.2
7858
#17
39.90.3
36.436.7
Auto8.3
Teleop30.6
End1.0
Third
4238
#21
21.30.4
18.118.5
Auto3.2
Teleop15.1
End2.9
blue by 7.8
2667
#43
29.00.2
26.626.8
Auto5.4
Teleop20.6
End3.0
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
95%Auto oddsEarned52%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
7%Coral oddsMissed9%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
75%Barge oddsEarned51%Barge oddsMissed